An overview of the region’s economy is necessary before addressing the impact of regional developments on the Turkish economy. Throughout history, this region has been host to many civilizations and cultures. A center of trade for many centuries, it has been a place where languages, religions, identities and cultures coexisted. Until the early 1900’s, this characteristic was preserved; however, with the founding of the Republic, it began slowly fading away.
In the 1927 census, Diyarbakir, one of the major cities of the region, was the third largest city in Turkey in terms of the proportion of the population employed in industry. Today, however, Diyarbakir ranks 68th in terms of socio-economic development among Turkey’s 81 provinces although it still ranks in the top ten in terms of population, geographical size, size of agricultural land and natural resources. 18 out of the 20 provinces at the bottom of the list of Turkey’s provinces sorted by socio-economic development are in this region. The region’s provinces regularly appear among the last 20 regardless of what criterion of general prosperity we apply.
For example, the number of automobiles per 1,000 people is 465 in EU countries, 80 in Turkey, and 20 in the region – that is, one-fourth of the average in Turkey. Similarly, the number of doctors per 1,000 people in the region is one-fifth the average for Turkey. The unemployment rate ranges between 30% and 35%, which is roughly three times the average for Turkey, which is 11%.
Nearly 40% of the region’s population makes less than 100 dollars a month, entitling them to a green card in order to receive social assistance. There are approximately 550,000 officially registered green card holders in Diyarbakir, which has a population of 1.5 million. Another 100,000 people cannot receive social aid because they cannot prove their poverty.
There are more than 10,000 shanty houses in Diyarbakir, which are home to nearly 100,000 immigrants.
50% of Diyarbakir’s population is 25 years of age or younger. Each year, 40,000 youth reach the working age without receiving any professional training.
Industry in the region is of a low intensity. Some 14,000 workers are employed in industry and their share in overall employment is 5%.
Of industrial businesses, 11% export their products and 60% of their exports are to Iraq or the Kurdistan Regional Government. Goods exported to destinations other than Iraq consist almost entirely of marble, which is a newly developing industry in the region.
Doubtless, this socio-economic underdevelopment that has Diyarbakir and the region at large in its throes has nothing to do with the region’s potential. On the contrary, the following data shows that the region has a highly significant economic potential.
Diyarbakir has twice as much farmland as the Turkish average in terms of arability, but it ranks 52nd among all Turkish provinces in terms of production as a function of the rural population because its arable land is not effectively utilized. This is a paradox because the region boasts an enormous potential for both hydroelectric and solar energy. For example, the Kiziltepe county of Mardin province has been declared the most suitable and attractive area in the world for solar energy production.
Diyarbakir and its neighboring provinces hold some of the world’s most valuable heritage areas in terms of faith and culture tourism. Diyarbakir also has adequate potential to be a regional hub in health and education. Possessing considerable potential in agriculture and textiles, the region is the proud grower of cotton that’s rated number two in the world in terms of quality. The region is also rich in mineral resources and holds 25% - 30% of Turkey’s marble reserves.
More examples, backed with data, can be given along these lines. But the issue we are addressing is why the socio-economic situation is so poor. The politics and economic policies targeting the region after the foundation of the Turkish Republic, especially after the 1930’s, caused Southeast Anatolia to remain underdeveloped. The regional development plans prepared by the State Planning Organization (DPT) after the 1960’s were either designed wrong or wrongly implemented.
Economic development moved at a much slower rate than in the other regions of Turkey when the atmosphere of conflict set in as of the 1980’s, giving rise to the present developmental disparity and imbalance between regions.
Recent governments devised a number of measures to eliminate the differences in the levels of development between regions, including:
A) The “GAP Action Plan” that was developed in order to complete the GAP (Southeast Anatolia Project) as soon as possible (still not completed).
B) Efforts were made to bring to life the incentives introduced from time to time (unsuccessful).
C) Efforts were made to incentivize trade with neighboring countries and to boost border trade (this trade commonly fell victim to politicking).
When we look at trade with neighboring countries, in particular the trade with Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government, which began in 2003 following the end of the embargo, it reached record volumes even in its early stages and kept rising yearly. According to official figures, the volume of trade with Iraq reached 3 billion dollars in 2005/2006; 4 billion dollars in 2007; 5 billion dollars in 2008; 6.5 billion dollars in 2009; and approximately 8.3 billion dollars in 2011. The trade volume with Syria shot up from 100 million dollars to nearly 1 billion dollars as relations improved (these figures predate recent events in Syria).
The region’s economy is directly tied to the volume of trade with neighboring countries and border trade. When Gaziantep is added in, 40% of the exports to Iraq are made via Southeast Anatolia. Gaziantep alone accounts for 30% of total exports.
Profiling the economic relations between the provinces in the region and neighboring countries by taking Iraq as an example, we see that 50% of the exports from Diyarbakir go there, with ores and metals taking the lead in volume at 38%. Marble probably makes up 80% of this amount. Other major export items this year were grains, pulses, oily seeds and products made from them.
Turkey’s undisputed champion in exports to Iraq and the Kurdish territory is Gaziantep, which exported 1.8 billion dollars’ worth of goods in 2011. The primary reason for this is the level of maturity Gaziantep has attained in commerce and industry. Currently in its third generation in industry, Gaziantep did some highly adroit lobbying upon spotting a receptive market. Thanks to its advanced industry and commerce, Gaziantep is perceived as a manufacturing province with a highly diversified portfolio of products ranging from food to textiles, from chemicals to plastics.
There’s no denying that the crises emerging in Southeast Anatolia impact this region more severely than other parts of Turkey. The view that the region’s economy is not integrated at all with Turkey’s overall economy falls rather short of the truth because, in reality, the region’s economy is integrated with the economy of the western parts of the country in many sectors, from automotive to textiles and from food to construction. Southeast Anatolia’s economy is not structured around border trade alone, but border trade has been quite instrumental in the growth of the transportation and logistics sectors there. In fact, these are the sectors that are the most affected by and sensitive to the crises that occasionally break out in the region. 10,000 families in Southeast Anatolia depend on the transportation and logistics sectors for their subsistence. The recent developments in Syria had an adverse effect on the regional provinces (Gaziantep, Hatay, and Sanliurfa) that had been developing their volume of trade with the country. These provinces sustained great losses, as did many of their companies. Impacted by the events in Syria, the trade volume with the country dropped from the aforementioned 1 billion dollars to nil. Likewise, the recent political tension between Turkey and Iran negatively influenced the border provinces in East Anatolia that had been making progress in border trade with Iran. Animal husbandry, textile and food products are the staples of the border trade with Iran. The border trade with Iran is directly susceptible to any fluctuations in the political situation in the region, which in turn undermines economic life in the East Anatolian provinces.
It’s natural for this crisis to impact the Southeast Anatolian provinces. The echoes of this impact ring to a lesser degree in the economy of Turkey as a whole because a significant portion of consumer goods and services sold in border trade (food, textiles, etc.) rely on produced goods that are purchased from the manufacturers in the west of Turkey.
In addition to these developments, the lack of a solution to the Kurdish problem, which remain Turkey’s top issue, and the widespread continuation of conflict and violence deal a debilitating blow both to trade with neighboring countries and border trade. Even if the economic measures prove successful, the integration of the region’s economy with Turkey’s economy keeps slowing down with each passing day as the Kurdish problem remains unsolved and security and stability remain not restored in the region. Not only will we then fail to remedy the inequality between regions regarding levels of development, but the debacle will worsen. Therefore, finding a solution to this problem is the primary and imperative duty of each individual and all segments of society in this country.